Regularities and Characteristics of Crossborder Capital Flow and Its Influence on Oil and Gas Enterprises

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Abstract Cross-border capital flow is an important indicator in the field of economy and finance, and a key factor affecting global financial stability. Studying the law of cross-border capital flow is of great significance to grasp the macroeconomic situation. Based on the concept and historical law of crossborder capital flow, we find three characteristics of cross-border capital flow since this year:large-scale capital flow back to the United States, increasing pressure of capital outflow from emerging markets, and net capital inflow into China. Based on the analysis of historical laws, it is expected that crossborder capital will still return to the United States in the second half of the year, and emerging market countries will also face greater capital outflow pressure. The trend of cross-border capital flows will have a profound impact on interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices, resulting in multiple risks faced by oil and gas enterprises, such as the debt default of resource countries, the increase of overseas financing costs, the increase of exchange rate risks and the downward trend of oil prices. We suggest establishing an early warning mechanism to avoid the risks.

Published: 30 March 2023

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