摘要It is estimated that in the coming years, the rate of consumption of oil products in China will increase at an energy-saving, environmentally-friendly, and slow pace. However, the increasing speed of the demand may vary according to the types of the products:gasoline and kerosene may be needed more while diesel may be needed less. It is also estimated that before 2020, there will be an oil products glut in the country. Export of oil products, especially diesel, will become a new norm or trend. Alternative energy forms, such as natural gas and electricity, will be developed rapidly to attain a goal of replacing 130 million tons of oil in 2030. Even with a more conservative scenario, oil demand in China is estimated to peak at either about 810 million tons or even less at 680 million tons by 2030 if the effect of alternative energy is considered.
Abstract：It is estimated that in the coming years, the rate of consumption of oil products in China will increase at an energy-saving, environmentally-friendly, and slow pace. However, the increasing speed of the demand may vary according to the types of the products:gasoline and kerosene may be needed more while diesel may be needed less. It is also estimated that before 2020, there will be an oil products glut in the country. Export of oil products, especially diesel, will become a new norm or trend. Alternative energy forms, such as natural gas and electricity, will be developed rapidly to attain a goal of replacing 130 million tons of oil in 2030. Even with a more conservative scenario, oil demand in China is estimated to peak at either about 810 million tons or even less at 680 million tons by 2030 if the effect of alternative energy is considered.
Qian Xingkun. Outlook of Demand for Oil Products in China[J]. 中国油气, 2016, 23(4): 21-27.
Qian Xingkun. Outlook of Demand for Oil Products in China. China Oil & Gas, 2016, 23(4): 21-27.
2016, Vol. 23 
